Overview

The Maldives is one of the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and ranks among the most vulnerable countries to the potential impacts of climate change. The geographical isolation, small landmass, and limited natural resources of these low-lying islands make the Maldives particularly vulnerable to existing natural hazards and future climate change impacts.  

As part of the joint project on “Strengthening National and Subnational Capacity for Sustainable Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Maldives,” funded by the Sustainable Development Goals Fund (SDG Fund), ESCAP is identifying the risk hotspots and assessing the exposure of climate-sensitive sectors in the Maldives concerning climate related hazards. In this process, the downscaled climate projection data developed by AP-PLAT is overlaid with sectoral information, including demographic data, land use, and critical infrastructure, to identify the risk hotspots. This approach has immensely enhanced the understanding of the climate risks, vulnerability and most affected sectors in Maldives at the sub-national level.

The visualization of climate exposure is available on the ESCAP Risk and Resilience Portal - Maldives Decision Support Tool.

 

Figures: Climate Scenario Exposures in the Maldives (2041-2060)

Key findings

The following are some of the key findings:

• As climate hazards are expected to intensify, so too will the direct impacts on exposed populations. ESCAP's analysis reveals that currently, 13 percent of the female population in the Maldives is exposed to multi-hazard risks. However, under different climate change scenarios, this percentage is projected to increase to as much as 99 percent by 2060 (Figure A). The Maldivian islands frequently experience intense precipitation, leading to waterlogging and flood-like situations. By 2060, approximately 50 percent of the total population of the Maldives is likely to be exposed to heightened risks of precipitation and related flooding under the SSP2 4.5 scenario, and around 55 percent under the worst-case scenario, SSP3 7.0, compared to 27 percent under the baseline scenario. Notably, while the highest number of exposed individuals resides in the capital city, those living in the remote islands are the most vulnerable (Figure B).
• Intense precipitation is also poised to impact agricultural activities in the Maldives. Up to 26 percent of the country's agricultural lands may face heightened risks of flooding under SSP3 7.0 by 2060. Thoddoo Island, the largest producer of fruits, vegetables, and salad leaves in the Maldives, is exposed to intensified precipitation under the worst-case scenario by 2060. This projected impact is significant, particularly given the current agricultural policy's encouragement to increase local agricultural production for domestic consumption. Additionally, 86 percent of the total agricultural land is exposed to up to a 1.6 °C increase in the annual average temperature and the potential for water scarcity. This includes atolls with comparably larger areas under agriculture, such as Laamu, Shaviyani, and Kaafu atolls (Figure C).
• Critical infrastructures, including energy, education, and healthcare facilities, are at risk from climate change and its impacts. Approximately 47 percent of the total installed energy capacity and 28 percent of other critical infrastructure in the country are exposed to the highest increases in precipitation and flood-like situations by the end of 2060 under both the SSP2 4.5 and SSP3 7.0 climate change scenarios. The impacts of intensified surface wind and storm-like scenarios are projected to be more significant in the near-term period (2021 – 2040). Around 28 percent of the total installed energy capacity and 41 percent of other critical infrastructure in the country are likely to be exposed to intense surface wind, with the majority of them located in the northern islands.
   

Project Information

Project Name: Strengthening National and Subnational Capacity for Sustainable Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation, and Mitigation in the Maldives

Funding: The project is funded by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals Fund (UN SDG Fund), with a total budget of USD 957,390.

Implementation Entities: The project is jointly implemented by ESCAP and UNDP Maldives in partnership with the Maldives National Disaster Management Authority and the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Technology (Maldives Met Service).

Duration: January 1, 2022 - March 31, 2024 (27 months)
 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

We express our gratitude to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) for their generous contribution of this case study to the database.