Highly vulnerable to climate change due to low-lying terrain, high population density, and location in the confluence of the Ganges.

Current trend
TEMPERATURE: Temperature in Bangladesh increased at the rate of 0.0056 °C per year from 1961 to 2014. Temperatures have been rising throughout the year with minimum temperature increasing 0.02°C/year and maximum temperature increasing 0.022°C/year.

PRECIPITATION: Average annual rainfall is around 2,400 mm, but the amount varies significantly across the different hydrological regions of the country, with values ranging from 791-2241 mm in the dry NorthWestern Barind Region, to 2586-5944 mm in the North-Eastern Region. In nation-wide, the rainfall is increasing at 8.4 mm/year

SEA LEVEL RISE: Between 1901 and 2010 sea level has risen at 1.7mm/year. The Bay of Bengal is also experiencing increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing trend in pH is observed.

Future projection
TEMPERATURE: It is estimated that Bangladesh will warm further, with an increase of 0.44 to 0.69°C in the near term (2030s) and 1.3 to 2°C in mid-term (2050s), slightly different depending on the region.

PRECIPITATION: Future rainfall in Bangladesh ranges between 0.1 to 1.4 percent in near term and 2.4 to 3.5 percent in mid-term. The north eastern and eastern hill regions will receive more than the western part of the country.

SEA LEVEL RISE: Future sea-level rise in Bangladesh is estimated to be between 0.11-0.12 m　in near-term, 0.23-0.27 m in mid-term and 0.54-0.86 m in long-term.

CLIMATE HAZARDS: Due to climate change, most climate related　hazards will have increased occurrence or intensities. Important hazards in Bangladesh are rainfall variability, river flood, flash flood, urban flood, sea level rise, salinity, cyclonic storm surge, drought, extreme heat wave, extreme cold, river bank erosion, lightning, landslide and sea surface temperature and ocean acidification.

Current trend
TEMPERATURE:
Figure p.11: Departure of Average Annual Temperature in Bangladesh relative to climate normal of 1960‐90
Data source: CEGIS Analysis based on BMD data

PRECIPITATION:
Figure p.12: Departure of Average Annual Precipitation in Bangladesh relative to climate normal of 1961‐90 
Data source: CEGIS Analysis based on BMD data

Future projection
TEMPERATURE:
Figure p.13: Future Annual Average Temperature and Rainfall Anomaly for Bangladesh and different regions based on Downscaled Multi‐model Ensemble
Data source: CEGIS analysis from IPCC AR6 multi model ensemble

PRECIPITATION:
Figure p.14: Seasonal Rainfall Anomaly for Bangladesh and different regions in 2050s based on Downscaled Multimodel Ensemble
Data source: CEGIS analysis from IPCC AR6 multi model ensemble

SEA LEVEL RISE:
Figure p.14: Sea level rise due to future climate change near Bangladesh coast in the Bay of Bengal
Data source: IPCC, 2021

CLIMATE HAZARDS:
Figure p.15: Future seasonal flow variation in the GBM basins 
Data source:CEGIS GBM Model

Figure p. 19: Flash flood affected area in north eastern Bangladesh
Data source: CEGIS Analysis based on satellite image

Figure p.20: Potential inundation due to Sea level rise and cyclone storm surge in the coastal area for 2050s
Data source CEGIS Bay of Bengal Model, 2021

Figure p.20: Distribution of different categories of Cyclone during 1960 to 2020
Data source: CEGIS analysis based on BMD data

Figure p.21: Surface water salinity distribution in coastal Bangladesh due to climate change
Data source: CEGIS Bay of Bengal Model

Figure p.22: Land surface Temperature changes in Dhaka
Data source: CEGIS analysis based on satellite image
 

• Water resources (21 projects)
• Disaster, social safety and security (12 projects)
• Agriculture (12 projects)
• Fisheries, aquaculture and livestock (13 projects)
• Ecosystem, wetlands and biodiversity (21 projects)
• Urban cities (12 projects)
• Policy and institution (7 projects)
• Capacity Development, Research and Innovations (15 projects)

Disaster management focuses on creating and strengthening disaster preparedness and its infrastructures such as cyclone shelter, flood shelter, EWS for lightning and landslides etc.

The following essence of EbA/NbS are observed:

• Redesigning of the hydraulic structures following NbS
• Develop and popularize conducive policy and incentive tools to popularize urban NbS or green infrastructures at the community level
• Capacity development of local government institutions for supporting implementation of LLA and NbS
• Training on understanding the sensitizing NbS and LLA
• Mobilise resources for implementation of NbS and LLA
• Identify the gaps, possibilities and challenges in potential application of EbA and NbS.
• Development of a national framework for effective.
• implementation of EbA and NbS in different sectors of
• Bangladesh.
• Assess and valuation of the ecosystem service of the ecologically important areas to identify EbA and NbS.
• Assess and identify new intervention considering the NbS.
• Development and implementation of integrated plan following the green growth strategies.
• Identify the vulnerability of the freshwater ecosystems against climate change to promotes long-term increases in fish production through EbA and NbS

NAP offers a multi-level institutional structure based on the existing institutional framework, conforming horizontal and vertical linkage to carry over locally-led adaptation towards the national level and vice-versa.

In National level: National Council on Environment and Climate Change (NCECC) and responsibilities added to oversee the strategy and policy level progress and outcome of the NAP and NDCs implementation under the umbrella of National Environment Policy.
Inter‐ministerial Steering Committee on Climate Change (ISCCC) headed by Minister, MoEFCC will steer the NAP implementation and conduct inter-ministerial coordination meeting in regular frequency keeping NAP implementation monitoring agenda with high priority.

In Local level: District Committee chaired by District Commissioner in each district will be given the scope to stocktake, guide, supervise and administer climate change adaptation related initiatives mandated by the legislations. This committee will play central role in local, regional, and sectoral planning and implementation of CCA with community and value chain actors.

Private sector engagement: The private sector emphasizes on developing　effective business models for private sector engagement in the key areas of NAP including in agriculture and food systems, agro-forestry, agromet forecasting and EWS, irrigation & water management, WASH and health risk management, big data driven decision tools and resilient infrastructures etc.

NAP will develop a national monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework based on a combination of a simplistic monitoring system and a comprehensive monitoring approach through identifying and assessing achievements in a very sophisticated way. The first “simplistic” monitoring system presents a summary of NAP progress utilizing traffic light colors. The second and more comprehensive approach includes a process and outcome or result-based framework to monitor and evaluate the efficacy of implemented adaptations against the set targets.

The NAP M&E framework involves a threefold system to monitor, evaluate, and report adaptation progress.
This M&E system will use indicators based on three light traffic colors,i.e., RED, AMBER, and GREEN as follows:
Strategic action not implemented/lack of progress in delivering
results (RED)
Strategic move partially implemented/some progress in providing
results (AMBER)
Strategic action fully implemented/significant strides in delivering activities (i.e., completed or on-track) (GREEN)

N/A

At least a 5 five-year updating/revision cycle.